(SINGAPORE) — As trade war tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, many traders are wondering what that could mean for commodities that have already been shipped from the U.S. to China.
According to Reuters, China is set to receive about 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in April-May despite new higher tariffs. Sources tell Reuters that state-owned Sinograin has purchased most of the cargoes and they will likely pay the higher duties even if they have to sell at a discount locally amid competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. A Singapore-based trader says “we don’t expect cancellations or any major issues with these cargoes since a government company has made these purchases.”
Sinograin is typically a buyer of U.S. soybeans for storage due to their lower moisture levels. Reuters says that Sinograin did not respond to comment.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced that he was putting a 90 day pause on tariffs for many countries and lowering the across the board reciprocal tariff to 10% during that period. However, he increased the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. China is vowing to “fight to the end” after Trump increased tariffs on products from that country on Wednesday.
As of the end of March, USDA data shows nearly 600,000 tons of U.S. soybeans purchased during the 2025-2025 marketing year had yet to be shipped and it remains unclear if those cargoes will be shipped or cancelled. According to the latest Weekly Export Sales report from USDA on April 10th, China was the featured buyer of U.S. soybeans at 5.2 million bushels (141,300 metric tons). However, 4.9 million bushels of that total (132,000 metric tons) was a switch from previously being listed as a purchase by “unknown destinations.”
